March 10, 2010

Horse owners in the Midwest of the United States looking forward to spring after a harsh winter, could find nature throwing another curve ball.

The approaching storm season could be more active than normal and produce more tornadoes, says Tony Lupo, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Missouri's College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources.

Lupo says the upcoming weather pattern resembles that of the 2002-2003 season, the worst season on record, when as many as 109 tornadoes swept across Missouri.

Similar to the 2002-2003 season, scientists have recorded a weak El Nino temperature trend in the Pacific Ocean, a colder than usual winter in the Midwest, and a jet stream running through the southern portion of the United States, all of which indicate a stormier season.

"A weak El Nino tends to create warmer and very moist air that is pushed into the central US by the jet stream," Lupo explains.

"The collision of this air with prevailing colder air triggers a clash of cold and warm air masses that produce strong thunderstorms."

Mid-March to June is considered the Midwest storm season, with stronger outbreaks occurring in late March and April when leftover winter air still lingers over the area.

This winter season was the 13th coldest since the 1890s and, despite a slight warming trend in late February.

Much of the northern US still has snow that will create cooler-than-normal conditions into the spring months, according to Lupo.

In addition to an increase of tornadoes this spring, Lupo expects frequent severe storms with damaging winds, hail, lightning and flash flooding.

"We've been stuck in a prolonged period of winter weather that could change quickly into a stormy spring," Lupo says.